tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 766 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 766 Southwest STL 10:20 PNS 12:17 11% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 591 Southwest STL 15:44 PNS 17:29 22% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 4h 51m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 5h 52m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:40 → ATL 19:25DL 543 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807 6h 50m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:03 → PNS 10:57AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 5h 25m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 6h 12m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 5h 49m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → STL 08:52 → DFW 11:01AA 1959 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:30 → PNS 15:28AA 2328 6h 36m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:07 → DFW 09:06AA 537 1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:58 → PNS 12:53AA 3243 5h 46m 98% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON