tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4929 Southwest STL 10:05 RDU 12:58 4% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 1534 Southwest STL 18:42 RDU 21:38 10% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → STL 05:01 → ORD 06:35AA 1926 1h 43m Chicago ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 5h 37m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052 4h 35m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521 6h 30m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 1h 11m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 4h 27m 97% 93%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 5h 56m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 6h 22m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 3h 09m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 6h 28m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:08 → DTW 18:44DL 1371 2h 56m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839 6h 17m 98% 91%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → STL 12:35 → LGA 16:13DL 4922 · flown by Endeavor 58m New York LGA 17:11 → RDU 19:19DL 5101 · flown by Endeavor 5h 44m 74% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON