tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 13:38, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3886 Southwest STL 08:23 SAN 10:28 9% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4403 Southwest STL 08:30 SAN 10:18 11% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 42m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 03m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:36 → SAN 17:00DL 843 9h 36m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 35m Detroit DTW 12:39 → SAN 14:19DL 761 9h 49m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SAN 19:37DL 712 8h 15m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 14:28 → ATL 17:18DL 1102 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 19:52 → SAN 21:35DL 819 9h 07m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:20 → SAN 10:42AA 1058 7h 10m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:07 → IAH 08:19UA 1371 3h 41m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 9h 14m 100% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON