Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 09:06, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 473 Alaska Flight history →	STL 06:02	SEA 08:30	13%	3%	0.7%	91%
AS 388 Alaska Flight history →	STL 15:08	SEA 17:21	15%	4%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 39m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 50m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 25m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	3h 25m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	9h 59m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 14m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868	3h 53m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	10h 23m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 16:40 → ATL 19:25DL 543	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	9h 19m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714	8h 49m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON