tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 573 United STL 07:05 SFO 09:40 9% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 4157 Southwest STL 08:26 SFO 10:39 12% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 16:40 → ATL 19:25DL 543 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SFO 00:04 +1DL 656 9h 24m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672 9h 52m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 4506 · flown by GoJet 2h 56m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 55m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa 3h 42m Houston IAH 17:07 → SFO 19:11UA 1134 10h 01m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:56DL 495 8h 34m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 48m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → SFO 15:48DL 823 8h 24m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 2h 55m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 8h 03m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 50m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 7h 14m 60% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON