Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 3892 Southwest	STL 08:35	SMF 10:49	5%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 48m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 16m	98%	90%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:29 → SMF 10:30AA 2081	6h 58m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 16:40 → ATL 19:25DL 543	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	8h 13m	98%	88%
American Details →	STL 07:07 → DFW 09:06AA 537	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:05 → SMF 13:41AA 2078	8h 34m	99%	87%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	3h 05m Denver	DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662	8h 04m	99%	87%
American Details →	STL 07:24 → ORD 09:01AA 1997	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → SMF 14:16AA 1906	8h 52m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 19:55 → SLC 22:05DL 1492	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	5h 49m	93%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON