Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3951 at 14:48, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3951 Southwest	STL 14:48	SRQ 18:20	16%	4%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	4h 44m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 17:30 → ATL 20:21DL 543	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 15m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:56 → SRQ 16:34DL 3115	6h 10m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 14:28 → ATL 17:19DL 1102	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	7h 24m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 09:37 → SRQ 13:49DL 478	6h 28m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 18:12 → SRQ 19:50DL 3109	5h 28m	99%	83%
American Details →	STL 06:33 → CLT 09:35AA 1515	59m Charlotte	CLT 10:34 → SRQ 12:39AA 1452	5h 06m	90%	72%
American Details →	STL 07:32 → CLT 10:30AA 712	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 14:00 → SRQ 15:57AA 2143	7h 25m	97%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON