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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:29, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 17:29 → ATL 20:19DL 543 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 23:06 → VPS 23:23DL 2745 5h 54m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462 6h 52m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:45 → VPS 11:02DL 2048 5h 02m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:10 → ATL 13:00DL 1571 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170 5h 51m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 11:55 → ATL 14:45DL 1400 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 6h 47m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 18:58 → ATL 21:44DL 1393 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 4h 31m 94% 86%
AmericanDetails → STL 10:14 → CLT 13:08AA 3096 2h 07m Charlotte CLT 15:15 → VPS 15:57AA 5201 · flown by PSA 5h 43m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 5h 56m 95% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON