Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3897 STS 12:06 → BUR 13:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3213 STS 10:01 → BUR 11:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3897 Southwest	STS 12:06	BUR 13:25	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
OO 3225 SkyWest	STS 19:00	BUR 20:23	9%	5%	1.8%	no record
AS 3213 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 10:01	BUR 11:24	10%	5%	2.7%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON