Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 3766 at 12:41, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3766 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STS 12:41	DFW 18:24	15%	5%	1.0%	95%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Rosa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 13:32 → PHX 15:43AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	3h 08m Phoenix	PHX 18:51 → DFW 23:30AA 556	7h 58m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON