Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Phoenix, leaving 13:32, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 13:32 → PHX 15:43AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 17:23 → LAX 18:55AA 1331	5h 22m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	STS 18:51 → SEA 20:49AS 1322	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 22:07 → LAX 00:18 +1AS 524	5h 27m	89%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON