tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, OO 3221 at 15:07, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3221 SkyWest STS 15:07 PDX 16:59 6% 3% 0.8% no record
AS 2331 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record STS 19:03 PDX 20:36 49% 21% 2.1% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → STS 13:06 → LAS 14:44AS 2459 · flown by Horizon 3h 43m Las Vegas LAS 18:27 → PDX 20:46AS 779 7h 40m 100% 90%
AlaskaDetails → STS 10:01 → BUR 11:24AS 3213 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Burbank BUR 14:28 → PDX 16:38AS 1550 6h 37m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → STS 13:32 → PHX 15:43AA 3757 · flown by Envoy 2h 12m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → PDX 20:46AA 1625 7h 14m 100% 84%
AlaskaDetails → STS 08:30 → SNA 10:12AS 3287 · flown by SkyWest 3h 53m Santa Ana SNA 14:05 → PDX 16:29AS 712 7h 59m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50AS 3047 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m San Diego SAN 16:18 → PDX 18:35AS 486 7h 31m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → STS 06:26 → SAN 08:15AS 3315 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m San Diego SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 7h 17m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → STS 17:56 → SAN 19:35AS 2257 · flown by Horizon 1h 18m San Diego SAN 20:53 → PDX 23:13AS 794 5h 17m 62% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON