Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 3757 at 13:32, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3757 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STS 13:32	PHX 15:43	12%	3%	1.2%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 12:41 → DFW 18:24AA 3766 · flown by Envoy	2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:55 → PHX 21:37AA 3232	8h 56m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON