Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3900 STS 06:00 → SAN 07:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3047 STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3900 Southwest	STS 06:00	SAN 07:48	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 4134 Southwest	STS 06:36	SAN 08:17	6%	1%	1.0%	no record
AS 3315 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 06:26	SAN 08:15	9%	4%	4.3%	88%
OO 3349 SkyWest	STS 06:23	SAN 08:11	9%	4%	4.3%	no record
OO 3046 SkyWest	STS 18:39	SAN 20:28	13%	4%	2.1%	no record
AS 3047 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 11:04	SAN 12:50	14%	6%	1.6%	60%
AS 2257 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 17:56	SAN 19:35	58%	18%	3.8%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON