Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: AS 1322 at 18:51, 24%.

Safest bet that day AS 1322 STS 18:51 → SEA 20:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AS 1331 STS 07:03 → SEA 08:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1322 Alaska Flight history →	STS 18:51	SEA 20:49	24%	5%	0.9%	76%
AS 513 Alaska	STS 06:57	SEA 08:55	27%	6%	1.2%	no record
AS 1331 Alaska	STS 07:03	SEA 08:57	30%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON