Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 3057 SkyWest	STS 17:37	SNA 19:45	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
AS 3287 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 08:30	SNA 10:12	21%	10%	2.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 13:32 → PHX 15:43AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	2h 20m Phoenix	PHX 18:03 → SNA 19:32AA 2471	6h 00m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STS 12:41 → DFW 18:24AA 3766 · flown by Envoy	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22AA 806	7h 41m	45%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON