Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:49, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 14:49 → ATL 18:46DL 1899	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → BOS 23:36DL 300	8h 47m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → BOS 23:26DL 2987	7h 53m	94%	80%
JetBlue Details →	STT 16:08 → SJU 16:50B6 435	3h 09m San Juan	SJU 19:59 → BOS 00:04 +1B6 462	7h 56m	98%	73%
American Details →	STT 13:07 → CLT 17:11AA 2684	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 19:55 → BOS 22:09AA 1843	9h 02m	96%	73%
American Details →	STT 15:53 → MIA 19:01AA 1391	2h 44m Miami	MIA 21:45 → BOS 00:59 +1AA 1054	9h 06m	98%	62%
American Details →	STT 13:48 → MIA 16:42AA 943	3h 38m Miami	MIA 20:20 → BOS 23:41AA 2539	9h 53m	98%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STT 15:53 → MIA 19:01AA 1391	1h 19m Miami	MIA 20:20 → BOS 23:41AA 2539	7h 48m	75%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON