Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Miami, leaving 13:48, is the safest bet: 44% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AA 2684 American Flight history →	STT 13:07	CLT 17:11	13%	3%	0.7%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 14:49 → ATL 18:46DL 1899	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	9h 09m	98%	89%
American Details →	STT 15:53 → MIA 19:01AA 1391	2h 33m Miami	MIA 21:34 → CLT 23:42AA 2231	7h 49m	98%	70%
American Details →	STT 13:48 → MIA 16:42AA 943	1h 50m Miami	MIA 18:32 → CLT 20:40AA 1577	6h 52m	98%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STT 13:48 → MIA 16:42AA 943	46m Miami	MIA 17:28 → CLT 19:36AA 3194	5h 48m	71%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON