Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:41, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 14:41 → ATL 18:42DL 1883	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:52DL 2527	9h 11m	98%	79%
American Details →	STT 13:07 → CLT 17:10AA 2684	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794	9h 05m	97%	66%
American Details →	STT 15:53 → MIA 19:00AA 1391	3h 00m Miami	MIA 22:00 → EWR 00:59 +1AA 2008	9h 06m	98%	64%
American Details →	STT 13:48 → MIA 16:41AA 943	3h 07m Miami	MIA 19:48 → EWR 22:53AA 322	9h 05m	98%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STT 15:53 → MIA 19:00AA 1391	48m Miami	MIA 19:48 → EWR 22:53AA 322	7h 00m	72%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON