Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:33, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	8h 25m	98%	78%
JetBlue Details →	STT 16:08 → SJU 16:50B6 435	1h 55m San Juan	SJU 18:45 → MCO 21:58B6 2134	5h 50m	93%	70%
American Details →	STT 13:53 → MIA 17:09AA 943	3h 08m Miami	MIA 20:17 → MCO 21:28AA 2803	7h 35m	99%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON