Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SUN 07:20 → SLC 08:27DL 4037 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	6h 07m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SUN 15:35 → SLC 16:47DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:40 → LAX 21:45DL 1142	7h 10m	100%	88%
United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Denver	DEN 19:44 → LAX 21:11UA 1460	7h 33m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	SUN 10:20 → SEA 11:14AS 2325 · flown by Horizon	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696	7h 05m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	SUN 19:43 → SEA 20:35AS 2327 · flown by Horizon	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 22:07 → LAX 00:18 +1AS 524	5h 35m	95%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON