Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SUN 07:20 → SLC 08:27DL 4037 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	5h 43m	99%	85%
United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	6h 02m	94%	79%
Alaska Details →	SUN 10:20 → SEA 11:14AS 2325 · flown by Horizon	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 13:20 → SFO 15:31AS 680	6h 11m	100%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON