Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 2–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4037 SUN 07:20 → SLC 08:27 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 4019 SUN 15:35 → SLC 16:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 3% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4037 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SUN 07:20	SLC 08:27	2%	3%	0.7%	98%
OO 3947 SkyWest	SUN 15:28	SLC 16:41	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4019 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SUN 15:35	SLC 16:47	5%	3%	0.7%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON