Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5071 SYR 05:11 → DCA 06:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5170 SYR 12:43 → DCA 14:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5071 PSA	SYR 05:11	DCA 06:48	7%	6%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3770 Envoy	SYR 06:04	DCA 07:24	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4555 Republic	SYR 17:45	DCA 19:19	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5170 PSA	SYR 12:43	DCA 14:13	16%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON