Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5363 SYR 05:48 → JFK 07:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest 9E 5348 SYR 16:36 → JFK 17:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5363 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SYR 05:48	JFK 07:01	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
B6 1515 JetBlue Flight history →	SYR 06:00	JFK 07:12	9%	3%	1.0%	92%
DL 5436 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SYR 11:25	JFK 12:38	11%	3%	0.8%	86%
9E 5280 Endeavor	SYR 16:24	JFK 17:45	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
9E 5348 Endeavor	SYR 16:36	JFK 17:49	15%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON