Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 17%, against 6% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1655 at 08:25, 11%.

Nonstops that day


B6 1655 JetBlue	SYR 08:25	MCO 11:26	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
B6 2655 JetBlue Flight history →	SYR 16:19	MCO 19:22	23%	9%	1.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SYR 09:16 → DTW 10:47DL 5213 · flown by Endeavor	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 12:27 → MCO 15:06DL 1123	5h 50m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SYR 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 1108	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664	6h 00m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SYR 06:21 → DTW 07:54DL 2091	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 10:35 → MCO 13:08DL 1747	6h 47m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SYR 05:47 → JFK 06:58DL 5363 · flown by Endeavor	2h 55m New York	JFK 09:53 → MCO 12:51DL 2019	7h 04m	97%	84%
American Details →	SYR 05:58 → ORD 07:02AA 572	3h 57m Chicago	ORD 10:59 → MCO 14:42AA 1661	8h 44m	100%	82%
American Details →	SYR 08:00 → CLT 10:11AA 1235	1h 57m Charlotte	CLT 12:08 → MCO 13:50AA 2877	5h 50m	98%	82%
American Details →	SYR 07:16 → DFW 09:50AA 533	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:55 → MCO 14:36AA 1606	7h 20m	95%	79%
JetBlue Details →	SYR 06:00 → JFK 07:12B6 1515	2h 54m New York	JFK 10:06 → MCO 12:57B6 183	6h 57m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON