Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3366 SYR 06:03 → ORD 07:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5811 SYR 12:41 → ORD 14:02 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3366 Envoy	SYR 06:03	ORD 07:29	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 342 United	SYR 06:04	ORD 07:18	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3531 Envoy	SYR 12:45	ORD 13:58	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 572 American Flight history →	SYR 05:58	ORD 07:02	9%	3%	0.6%	70%
YX 4648 Republic	SYR 13:06	ORD 14:15	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3631 Envoy	SYR 17:17	ORD 18:22	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1440 United	SYR 17:43	ORD 18:57	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5811 SkyWest	SYR 12:41	ORD 14:02	12%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON