Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2743 at 05:12 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2743 TPA 05:12 → ATL 06:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 759 TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2743 Delta	TPA 05:12	ATL 06:47	3%	2%	1.3%	no record
DL 1726 Delta Flight history →	TPA 06:15	ATL 07:50	6%	2%	1.3%	88%
DL 744 Delta Flight history →	TPA 08:45	ATL 10:15	9%	3%	1.3%	90%
WN 3003 Southwest	TPA 09:10	ATL 10:46	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	TPA 10:00	ATL 11:35	11%	3%	1.2%	90%
DL 1486 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	ATL 09:07	11%	2%	1.3%	91%
F9 1853 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 07:00	ATL 09:01	11%	4%	1.8%	74%
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:14	ATL 12:52	12%	4%	1.3%	86%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:34	ATL 14:10	18%	5%	1.8%	80%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	TPA 19:00	ATL 20:55	18%	9%	1.8%	79%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	TPA 13:44	ATL 15:20	20%	6%	1.8%	82%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	TPA 16:35	ATL 18:17	20%	8%	1.8%	80%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	TPA 15:18	ATL 16:54	22%	8%	1.9%	72%
F9 4435 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 14:25	ATL 16:16	26%	14%	2.3%	63%
F9 2723 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 17:52	ATL 19:47	27%	13%	2.7%	69%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:03	ATL 19:48	28%	10%	1.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON