Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3559 at 09:45, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3559 Southwest	TPA 09:45	BHM 10:24	8%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 55m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	6h 10m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	6h 08m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	5h 39m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	TPA 16:35 → ATL 18:17DL 1720	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:18 → BHM 21:21DL 2257	5h 46m	98%	89%
American Details →	TPA 06:00 → CLT 07:47AA 1225	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 09:27 → BHM 10:02AA 5043 · flown by PSA	5h 02m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	5h 59m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:20DL 1099	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 19:19 → BHM 19:22DL 3044	6h 38m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON