Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2406 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2406 TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 592 TPA 16:58 → BOS 20:07 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2406 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:00	BOS 10:09	5%	2%	0.9%	95%
B6 1192 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 06:30	BOS 09:33	5%	2%	1.2%	89%
DL 2706 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:23	BOS 14:35	12%	4%	1.0%	78%
B6 692 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 11:05	BOS 14:20	15%	5%	1.2%	69%
DL 1439 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:35	BOS 23:47	19%	8%	1.6%	72%
B6 592 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 16:58	BOS 20:07	22%	9%	3.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON