Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 938 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 938 TPA 06:45 → BWI 09:08 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1538 TPA 19:20 → BWI 22:03 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 938 Southwest	TPA 06:45	BWI 09:08	2%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 3915 Southwest	TPA 10:25	BWI 12:50	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 4597 Southwest	TPA 12:04	BWI 14:29	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 470 Southwest	TPA 14:42	BWI 17:10	15%	5%	1.6%	no record
WN 4330 Southwest	TPA 17:04	BWI 19:29	18%	6%	2.0%	no record
F9 1538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 19:20	BWI 22:03	19%	9%	2.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON