Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: F9 1667 at 20:54, 22%.

Nonstops that day


F9 1667 Frontier	TPA 20:54	CVG 23:23	22%	10%	2.2%	no record
DL 1679 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:25	CVG 20:42	30%	9%	2.3%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406	1h 31m Boston	BOS 11:40 → CVG 14:07DL 5598 · flown by Republic	7h 07m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	3h 13m Detroit	DTW 14:21 → CVG 15:39DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	7h 09m	98%	90%
American Details →	TPA 05:58 → CLT 07:44AA 1225	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 11:34 → CVG 12:54AA 1533	6h 56m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 10m	96%	88%
United Details →	TPA 09:00 → EWR 11:51UA 2204	2h 05m Newark	EWR 13:56 → CVG 15:59UA 3455 · flown by Republic	6h 59m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149	4h 58m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	6h 41m	99%	87%
American Details →	TPA 06:44 → ORD 08:49AA 354	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 10:14 → CVG 12:29AA 3950 · flown by Envoy	5h 45m	97%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 16:25 → LGA 19:26DL 2106	1h 06m New York	LGA 20:32 → CVG 22:32DL 5517 · flown by Endeavor	6h 07m	73%	60%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	4h 07m	70%	60%
American Details →	TPA 17:41 → MIA 18:52AA 2798	53m Miami	MIA 19:45 → CVG 22:35AA 4115 · flown by Envoy	4h 54m	47%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON