Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2439 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2439 TPA 06:15 → EWR 09:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 392 TPA 19:09 → EWR 22:08 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2439 United Flight history →	TPA 06:15	EWR 09:11	6%	2%	1.2%	96%
UA 2679 United	TPA 07:03	EWR 09:53	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 8883 Delta	TPA 01:48	EWR 04:21	9%	3%	1.6%	no record
UA 2204 United Flight history →	TPA 09:00	EWR 11:51	11%	3%	1.0%	85%
DL 8884 Delta	TPA 01:18	EWR 03:53	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 2858 United Flight history →	TPA 10:57	EWR 13:48	14%	4%	1.0%	87%
UA 1117 United	TPA 15:56	EWR 18:57	28%	9%	1.8%	no record
UA 1321 United Flight history →	TPA 16:21	EWR 19:05	30%	9%	1.9%	94%worse than usual
UA 392 United	TPA 19:09	EWR 22:08	31%	11%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON