Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4468 at 06:24, 8%.

Safest bet that day WN 4468 TPA 06:24 → HOU 07:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest WN 4834 TPA 18:47 → HOU 19:56 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4468 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 06:24	HOU 07:42	8%	1%	0.8%	65%
WN 3935 Southwest	TPA 07:21	HOU 08:32	13%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 4834 Southwest	TPA 18:47	HOU 19:56	39%	10%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON