Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2475 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2475 TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1520 TPA 19:51 → JFK 22:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2475 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:05	JFK 09:51	5%	2%	1.3%	94%
B6 226 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 07:19	JFK 10:07	7%	2%	1.8%	69%
DL 2042 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:14	JFK 13:58	10%	3%	1.3%	87%
B6 2726 JetBlue	TPA 15:32	JFK 18:24	16%	6%	2.7%	no record
DL 1520 Delta	TPA 19:51	JFK 22:30	16%	7%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON