Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 819 Southwest	TPA 08:10	LAS 10:02	7%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → JFK 13:58DL 2042	3h 02m New York	JFK 17:00 → LAS 19:50DL 806	11h 36m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475	1h 39m New York	JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807	9h 56m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852	3h 12m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766	10h 10m	99%	91%
United Details →	TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09UA 2156	9h 09m	98%	90%
United Details →	TPA 12:40 → LAX 15:06UA 2019	3h 53m Los Angeles	LAX 18:59 → LAS 20:30UA 371	10h 50m	100%	89%
United Details →	TPA 06:10 → EWR 09:08UA 2439	3h 17m Newark	EWR 12:25 → LAS 14:53UA 1864	11h 43m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	7h 41m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 19:57 → LAS 21:13DL 916	10h 13m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON