tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 538 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 538 TPA 07:31 → LAX 09:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 749 TPA 19:15 → LAX 21:17 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time
Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 538 Delta Flight history → TPA 07:31 LAX 09:24 14% 2% 0.6% 89%
UA 2019 United Flight history → TPA 12:41 LAX 15:01 17% 5% 0.8% 94%worse than usual
DL 749 Delta Flight history → TPA 19:15 LAX 21:17 28% 11% 1.9% 76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → TPA 06:26 → HOU 07:42WN 4468 1h 01m Houston HOU 08:43 → LAX 10:08WN 1874 6h 42m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 7h 12m 88% 81%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 1h 11m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 7h 15m 88% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON