Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 17%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3943 at 07:35, 7%.

Safest bet that day WN 3943 TPA 07:35 → MDW 09:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3944 TPA 17:54 → MDW 19:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Weather 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3943 Southwest	TPA 07:35	MDW 09:23	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 591 Southwest	TPA 11:45	MDW 13:30	19%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 3944 Southwest	TPA 17:54	MDW 19:37	25%	8%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON