Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2199 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 2199 TPA 05:58 → MIA 07:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2798 TPA 17:41 → MIA 18:52 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2199 American Flight history →	TPA 05:58	MIA 07:12	4%	2%	1.3%	85%
AA 1740 American Flight history →	TPA 07:00	MIA 08:10	5%	2%	1.2%	95%
MQ 3549 Envoy	TPA 07:06	MIA 08:15	8%	2%	2.1%	no record
AA 593 American	TPA 11:23	MIA 12:38	15%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 2913 American	TPA 13:44	MIA 14:58	26%	9%	2.2%	no record
AA 2798 American Flight history →	TPA 17:41	MIA 18:52	39%	14%	3.2%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON