tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 6% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3947 at 15:37, 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3947 Southwest TPA 15:37 MSY 16:15 23% 6% 2.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 22m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:47 → DCA 09:11AA 2385 2h 12m Washington DCA 11:23 → MSY 12:56AA 2586 7h 09m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 59m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 5h 17m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 5h 43m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:24 → ORD 09:27UA 2189 1h 28m Chicago ORD 10:55 → MSY 13:14UA 1532 6h 50m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → TPA 05:58 → MIA 07:12AA 2199 1h 39m Miami MIA 08:51 → MSY 10:10AA 2566 5h 12m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → JFK 13:58DL 2042 1h 33m New York JFK 15:31 → MSY 18:02DL 1387 7h 48m 95% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 19:11 → ORD 21:13AA 1101 48m Chicago ORD 22:01 → MSY 00:48 +1AA 3256 6h 37m 63% 52%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:41 → MIA 18:52AA 2798 1h 33m Miami MIA 20:25 → MSY 21:39AA 329 4h 58m 59% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON