Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2189 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2189 TPA 07:24 → ORD 09:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1010 TPA 16:30 → ORD 18:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2189 United Flight history →	TPA 07:24	ORD 09:26	6%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 354 American Flight history →	TPA 08:32	ORD 10:31	8%	3%	1.2%	92%
UA 2223 United Flight history →	TPA 12:30	ORD 14:40	14%	6%	0.9%	85%
AA 3168 American	TPA 13:38	ORD 15:33	23%	8%	2.1%	no record
UA 2777 United	TPA 19:29	ORD 21:30	25%	12%	1.2%	no record
UA 1779 United	TPA 17:55	ORD 19:56	25%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 1101 American Flight history →	TPA 19:11	ORD 21:13	25%	10%	2.2%	55%
UA 1010 United Flight history →	TPA 16:30	ORD 18:40	26%	10%	1.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON