Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1436 TPA 06:03 → PHX 07:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1402 TPA 07:27 → PHX 09:09 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1436 American	TPA 06:03	PHX 07:44	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2013 American	TPA 07:08	PHX 08:39	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3591 Southwest	TPA 10:07	PHX 11:33	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1402 American Flight history →	TPA 07:27	PHX 09:09	16%	3%	0.8%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 06:23 → HOU 07:43WN 4468	1h 07m Houston	HOU 08:50 → PHX 09:37WN 4307	6h 14m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744	55m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	6h 18m	85%	75%
American Details →	TPA 05:58 → DFW 07:52AA 1369	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	6h 31m	94%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON