Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1279 at 09:11 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1279 TPA 09:11 → RDU 11:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2730 TPA 15:04 → RDU 17:22 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	TPA 09:11	RDU 11:04	6%	3%	1.2%	91%
MX 766 Breeze	TPA 07:59	RDU 09:58	8%	3%	1.8%	no record
DL 1275 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:59	RDU 22:55	14%	9%	1.6%	80%
F9 2730 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 15:04	RDU 17:22	20%	9%	3.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON