tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 06:24, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1720 Alaska TPA 17:27 SAN 19:27 22% 8% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 39m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 1h 25m Detroit DTW 12:33 → SAN 14:26DL 761 8h 56m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 53m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 06:24 → HOU 07:42WN 4468 1h 44m Houston HOU 09:26 → SAN 10:49WN 3474 7h 25m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → JFK 13:58DL 2042 3h 32m New York JFK 17:30 → SAN 20:34DL 709 12h 20m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852 3h 12m Detroit DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369 10h 33m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SAN 19:37DL 712 10h 03m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:16 → SLC 09:52DL 2045 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 52m 96% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:41 → MIA 18:52AA 2798 1h 30m Miami MIA 20:22 → SAN 22:47AA 3010 8h 06m 63% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON