Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 1090 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:16	SEA 10:10	14%	3%	1.3%	88%
AS 640 Alaska Flight history →	TPA 07:08	SEA 10:13	23%	4%	1.2%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331	1h 46m Dulles	IAD 13:08 → SEA 16:00UA 1824	10h 00m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 20m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475	1h 39m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	10h 45m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → JFK 13:58DL 2042	3h 02m New York	JFK 17:00 → SEA 20:36DL 740	12h 22m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 15m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 49m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406	1h 20m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	10h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852	3h 23m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	11h 01m	100%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 15:59 → PHL 18:39AA 809	51m Philadelphia	PHL 19:30 → SEA 22:26AA 1823	9h 27m	73%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON