tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:33, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1712 United TPA 06:58 SFO 09:52 7% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 3h 29m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 38m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672 9h 22m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 1h 24m New York JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363 10h 28m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → JFK 13:58DL 2042 2h 32m New York JFK 16:30 → SFO 20:06DL 365 11h 52m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:33 → SLC 09:14DL 2045 1h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 8h 30m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → TPA 10:48 → PHL 13:26AA 2807 2h 19m Philadelphia PHL 15:45 → SFO 18:32AA 3295 10h 44m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → TPA 12:40 → LAX 15:05UA 2019 3h 51m Los Angeles LAX 18:56 → SFO 20:39UA 2837 10h 59m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → TPA 06:14 → EWR 09:03UA 2439 2h 47m Newark EWR 11:50 → SFO 15:01UA 1343 11h 47m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TPA 12:30 → ORD 14:40UA 2223 46m Chicago ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 8h 48m 75% 62%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:41 → MIA 18:52AA 2798 2h 09m Miami MIA 21:01 → SFO 00:01 +1AA 2347 9h 20m 74% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON