Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1751 at 13:53, 22%.

Safest bet that day B6 1751 TPA 13:53 → SJU 17:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest F9 2216 TPA 13:35 → SJU 16:43 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1751 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 13:53	SJU 17:09	22%	7%	1.3%	73%
WN 3226 Southwest	TPA 15:58	SJU 18:56	26%	6%	2.1%	no record
F9 2216 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 13:35	SJU 16:43	28%	8%	2.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON