Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 06:23, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2045 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:16	SLC 09:53	8%	2%	0.8%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	8h 34m	100%	92%
American Details →	TPA 05:58 → CLT 07:45AA 1225	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → SLC 13:45AA 1895	9h 47m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 55m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 20m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11DL 935	7h 41m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	9h 18m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	TPA 06:23 → HOU 07:42WN 4468	1h 47m Houston	HOU 09:29 → SLC 11:28WN 2031	7h 05m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	9h 06m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON