Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1807 at 10:25, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1807 Southwest	TUL 10:25	AUS 11:59	5%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456	5h 15m	95%	89%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	7h 54m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	5h 46m	97%	86%
American Details →	TUL 12:57 → DFW 14:19AA 2352	2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:17 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	5h 25m	100%	86%
United Details →	TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Denver	DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899	7h 04m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → AUS 20:22DL 1170	7h 41m	98%	84%
United Details →	TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Denver	DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943	6h 34m	97%	82%
American Details →	TUL 06:04 → DFW 07:35AA 1090	3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:57 → AUS 12:14AA 1070	6h 10m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON