Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1729 American Flight history →	TUL 07:00	CLT 10:30	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2657 American	TUL 14:42	CLT 17:59	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 31m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	5h 13m	99%	88%
American Details →	TUL 05:57 → DFW 07:31AA 1090	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:55 → CLT 13:41AA 2493	6h 44m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158	5h 40m	98%	88%
American Details →	TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 11:46 → CLT 14:43AA 3021	7h 08m	99%	87%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m Denver	DEN 09:49 → CLT 15:02UA 2231	8h 02m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070	7h 52m	97%	86%
American Details →	TUL 07:47 → DFW 09:12AA 3095	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	6h 49m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON